Guessing Finishing Times given one race

The following calculator is based on the World Association of Veteran Athletes (WAVA) age-graded tables from 2006 (updated in 2010). The rational is the assumption that if you can run a 10K at 75% for your age and sex then you can probably run a 5K and a 15K at about 75% too. This calculator merely figures out your age-graded percentage for a specific race and applies that to a bunch of other distances...

Of course the correlation between a 5K and a Marathon isn't as meaningful as the correlation between a 10K and a 15K.

And a time on Pier to Peak or the State Street Mile doesn't correlate well with a flat race.

Results should be updated when the input focus leaves a control -- the easiest way to achieve this is probably to press the <Tab> key. Note: JavaScript must be enabled for this page to work.

    I think you mistyped something, I can't understand it.

The idea for this calculator grew out of (separate) conversations with Rusty and Kornell.

Time & Pace

If I want to run a 3K 5K 4M 8K 5M 10K 8M 15K 16K 10M 20K Half Marathon 30K 20M 40K Marathon 50K 50M 100K 100M in then I need to run at a min/mile (or min/km) pace, which is miles/hour.

If I want to run a 3K 5K 4M 8K 5M 10K 8M 15K 16K 10M 20K Half Marathon 30K 20M 40K Marathon 50K 50M 100K 100M at min/mile then I will finish in .

If I want to run a 3K 5K 4M 8K 5M 10K 8M 15K 16K 10M 20K Half Marathon 30K 20M 40K Marathon 50K 50M 100K 100M at min/km then I will finish in .

Miles Km in Pace: Min/Mile Min/Km .

Miles Km at Min/Mile Min/Km will take

Time: at Min/Mile Min/Km I went Miles Km

Miles/Hour Km/Hour Feet/Sec Meters/Sec Min/Mile Min/Km is Miles/Hour Km/Hour Feet/Sec Meters/Sec Min/Mile Min/Km .

Km <-> Miles

Age related decline in Speed

The following graph shows the age related decline in speed for the selected race. These are the WAVA data which are based (loosely) on world record times for each age (and then smoothed).

The graph has been normalized so that when people are running their fastest that is considered a speed of 100%. The decline for men is shown with a blue line, the decline for women with a red line. The fainter red line compares women's speeds at various ages to the men's best speed (instead of the women's best speed).

The horizontal axis is in years. The WAVA data start at 5 years old and end at 99.

Sex/Age related decline in Speed

When I was 48 I ran a 10K race where the lead woman was .1 second ahead of me but my age graded percentage was .1% more than hers. That was the first time a woman beat me in a race with a lower age-graded-percentage than mine, and I wondered when does the cross-over happen?

• Assuming a man and woman run with about the same age-graded-percentage then at what age does an older male start running slower than a female at her peak?
  It seems to be somewhere between 46 and 50 depending on the distance.
• Or, now that I'm beyond that tipping point, what age women should I expect to run with?
  There seems to be a long stretch for men from about 50 to 75 where they should run at the same pace as women who are roughly 13 years younger (again, assuming roughly equal age-graded-percentages).

The following graph allows you to fiddle with the WAVA data for given races by comparing men against women where the women's age is offset from the men by a certain amount (so men can be compared to younger (or older) women).

The graph has been normalized so that when men are running their fastest that is considered a speed of 100%. The decline for men is shown with a blue line, the decline for women with a red line.

The horizontal axis is in years with men marked in blue, and women in red (or, if the age offset is 0, then everyone is in purple).